Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-11-08?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 64¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$12.15
66.1¢ → 63.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 66.1¢ | $485.7 | $486.15 | +$0.46 | 51% 24452-23135 (47587) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $346.11 | $358.25 | +$12.14 | 50% 20843-21072 (41915) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 66¢ | $269.94 | $269.94 | +$0 | 50% 36455-35915 (72370) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 66.6¢ | $80.11 | $79.41 | -$0.7 | 50% 25577-25281 (50858) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $12.05 | $6.61 | +$0.25 | 58% 45573-32987 (78560) |
Invested
$485.7
Value
$486.15
PnL
+$0.46
Record
51%
24452-23135 (47587)
Invested
$346.11
Value
$358.25
PnL
+$12.14
Record
50%
20843-21072 (41915)
Invested
$269.94
Value
$269.94
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
36455-35915 (72370)
Invested
$80.11
Value
$79.41
PnL
-$0.7
Record
50%
25577-25281 (50858)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$12.05
Value
$6.61
PnL
+$0.25
Record
58%
45573-32987 (78560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.