Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-11-08?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 33¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$3.3K
-$53.75
34.2¢ → 32.5¢
-5% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
39h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fraj0la | Yesavg 67.1¢ | $1.0K | $992.42 | -$24.58 | 63% 257-151 (408) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $793.57 | $760.97 | -$32.6 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 34¢ | $483.7 | $490.82 | +$7.11 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 32.6¢ | $462.35 | $461.54 | -$0.81 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 32.6¢ | $349.97 | $349.11 | -$0.86 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 34.4¢ | $363.63 | $188.34 | +$2.52 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 35.2¢ | $88 | $83.75 | -$4.25 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $5.27 | $5.03 | -$0.24 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $3.3 | $3.25 | -$0.05 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
fraj0laInvested
$1,017
Value
$992.42
PnL
-$24.58
Record
63%
257-151 (408)
Invested
$793.57
Value
$760.97
PnL
-$32.6
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$483.7
Value
$490.82
PnL
+$7.11
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$462.35
Value
$461.54
PnL
-$0.81
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$349.97
Value
$349.11
PnL
-$0.86
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$363.63
Value
$188.34
PnL
+$2.52
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$88
Value
$83.75
PnL
-$4.25
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$5.27
Value
$5.03
PnL
-$0.24
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.