SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 96¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$16.8K
$941.57
81.7¢ → 95.9¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 82¢ | $12.7K | $10.6K | +$190.79 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 80.9¢ | $4.5K | $5.2K | +$702.02 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 82¢ | $816.19 | $681.52 | +$12.24 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 82¢ | $283 | $236.31 | +$4.3 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 2.4¢ | $49 | $83.84 | +$34.84 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 6.2¢ | $23.6 | $17.66 | -$3.94 | 52% 27099-24604 (51703) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.3¢ | $0.52 | $1.84 | +$1.32 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
Invested
$12,692.81
Value
$10.6K
PnL
+$190.79
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$4,472.59
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$702.02
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$816.19
Value
$681.52
PnL
+$12.24
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$283
Value
$236.31
PnL
+$4.3
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$49
Value
$83.84
PnL
+$34.84
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$23.6
Value
$17.66
PnL
-$3.94
Record
52%
27099-24604 (51703)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$1.84
PnL
+$1.32
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.