Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-11-06?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$2.5K
-$5.77
59¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 58.5¢ | $955.7 | $957.21 | +$1.51 | 64% 10090-5691 (15781) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 58.7¢ | $937.5 | $935.99 | -$1.51 | 64% 10066-5621 (15687) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 60¢ | $303.53 | $282.29 | -$9.48 | 58% 47033-33917 (80950) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 60¢ | $2.4 | $210.54 | +$1.82 | 51% 26315-24941 (51256) |
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 61.2¢ | $119.95 | $113.68 | +$0.98 | 53% 2617-2309 (4926) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $35.01 | $35.89 | +$0.88 | 53% 16908-15025 (31933) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $1.3 | $1.33 | +$0.03 | 50% 26084-25740 (51824) |
Invested
$955.7
Value
$957.21
PnL
+$1.51
Record
64%
10090-5691 (15781)
Invested
$937.5
Value
$935.99
PnL
-$1.51
Record
64%
10066-5621 (15687)
VeryLucky888Invested
$303.53
Value
$282.29
PnL
-$9.48
Record
58%
47033-33917 (80950)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$210.54
PnL
+$1.82
Record
51%
26315-24941 (51256)
rayvanmechelenInvested
$119.95
Value
$113.68
PnL
+$0.98
Record
53%
2617-2309 (4926)
Invested
$35.01
Value
$35.89
PnL
+$0.88
Record
53%
16908-15025 (31933)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.33
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
26084-25740 (51824)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.