Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 35¢ · $506 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$505.86
$13.52
33¢ → 34.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $235.95 | $258.01 | +$11.07 | 51% 26331-24957 (51288) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 66¢ | $132 | $131 | +$1 | 58% 47075-33957 (81032) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $93.72 | $99.4 | +$1.42 | 50% 37969-37225 (75194) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $14.84 | $14.72 | +$0.11 | 50% 26109-25769 (51878) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.1¢ | $2.82 | $2.73 | -$0.09 | 50% 1593-1611 (3204) |
Invested
$235.95
Value
$258.01
PnL
+$11.07
Record
51%
26331-24957 (51288)
VeryLucky888Invested
$132
Value
$131
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
47075-33957 (81032)
Invested
$93.72
Value
$99.4
PnL
+$1.42
Record
50%
37969-37225 (75194)
Invested
$14.84
Value
$14.72
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
26109-25769 (51878)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.73
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
1593-1611 (3204)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.