Charleston Cougars vs. Temple Owls: O/U 155.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 54¢ · $892 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 50%
2 arb excluded
$892.35
-$26.69
55.7¢ → 54¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 55.7¢ | $315.04 | $316.96 | +$1.92 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 45.6¢ | $213.24 | $206.06 | -$7.17 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.6¢ | $144.72 | $136.32 | -$8.4 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56¢ | $68.52 | $69.75 | +$1.22 | |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $148.83 | $157.94 | +$9.11 | 55% 718-583 (1301) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 55.9¢ | $185.49 | $147.74 | -$37.75 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 44.1¢ | $65.75 | $62.8 | -$2.95 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44.1¢ | $43.13 | $39.6 | -$3.54 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 58¢ | $22.62 | $23.21 | +$0.58 | |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $0.82 | $0.84 | +$0.02 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$315.04
Value
$316.96
PnL
+$1.92
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$213.24
Value
$206.06
PnL
-$7.17
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Both legs:
Invested
$148.83
Value
$157.94
PnL
+$9.11
Record
55%
718-583 (1301)
Invested
$185.49
Value
$147.74
PnL
-$37.75
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$65.75
Value
$62.8
PnL
-$2.95
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
Both legs:
Invested
$0.82
Value
$0.84
PnL
+$0.02
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.