Spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (-9.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cornell Big Red (60%) · Cornell Big Red at 57¢ · $720 held · ends Nov 12

St. Bonaventure Bonnies43¢Cornell Big Red57¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cornell Big Red

Consensus Traders

Cornell Big Red 60%

Total Value

$720.34

Combined PnL

-$12.65

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 57¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCornell Big Red at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cornell Big Red

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

St. Bonaventure Bonnies43%

Cornell Big Red57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cornell Big Red3 traders

Total Value$709.05

Total Shares1,285

Combined PnL-$12.4

St. Bonaventure Bonnies2 traders

Total Value$11.29

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$0.25

Cornell Big Red — 60%St. Bonaventure Bonnies — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Cornell Big Redavg 56¢	$518.46	$509.5	-$8.96	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
HI hi774c	Cornell Big Redavg 56¢	$198.09	$194.55	-$3.54	14% 76-472 (548)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 46¢	$6.9	$6.75	-$0.15	38% 352-584 (936)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cornell Big Redavg 54¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	32% 297-622 (919)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 46¢	$4.64	$4.54	-$0.1	51% 1853-1805 (3658)

HomeRunHazard

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$518.46

Value

$509.5

PnL

-$8.96

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

hi774c

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$198.09

Value

$194.55

PnL

-$3.54

Record

14%

76-472 (548)

sentrioCTR<$100

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

352-584 (936)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

32%

297-622 (919)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

Research grade

AvoidCornell Big Red at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cornell Big Red

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cornell Big Red wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.