Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Florida State Seminoles (60%) · Florida State Seminoles at 54¢ · $848 held · ends Nov 10

Florida Gators47¢Florida State Seminoles53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Florida State Seminoles

Consensus Traders

Florida State Seminoles 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$848.18

Combined PnL

$7.49

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidFlorida State Seminoles at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida State Seminoles

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Florida Gators47%

Florida State Seminoles54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida State Seminoles3 traders

Total Value$407.5

Total Shares762

Combined PnL+$6.75

Florida Gators2 traders

Total Value$76.24

Total Shares164

Combined PnL+$0.75

Florida State Seminoles — 60%Florida Gators — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Florida State Seminoles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Florida State Seminoles 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 51.9¢	$261.05	$264.44	+$3.39	48% 898-974 (1872)
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 51.9¢	$151.74	$156.29	+$4.55
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 47¢	$109.31	$108.15	-$1.16
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Florida State Seminolesavg 53¢	$215.49	$217.52	+$2.03	54% 1631-1394 (3025)
HO HomeRunHazard	Florida State Seminolesavg 52.2¢	$180.57	$185.18	+$4.61	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 53¢	$151.83	$100	+$2.1	50% 240-242 (482)
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 53¢	$53	$53.5	+$0.5
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 47¢	$47.05	$46.5	+$1.6
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 46¢	$73.14	$73.94	+$0.8	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
PA Pan9X<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 52.3¢	$4.69	$4.8	+$0.1	49% 428-453 (881)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.3	-$0.05	24% 163-507 (670)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$261.05

Value

$264.44

PnL

+$3.39

Record

48%

898-974 (1872)

Both legs:

Florida State Seminoles$151.7451.9¢+$4.55

Florida Gators$109.3147¢-$1.16

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$215.49

Value

$217.52

PnL

+$2.03

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

HomeRunHazard

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$180.57

Value

$185.18

PnL

+$4.61

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$151.83

Value

$100

PnL

+$2.1

Record

50%

240-242 (482)

Both legs:

Florida State Seminoles$5353¢+$0.5

Florida Gators$47.0547¢+$1.6

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$73.14

Value

$73.94

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

Pan9X<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

428-453 (881)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.05

Record

24%

163-507 (670)

Research grade

AvoidFlorida State Seminoles at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Florida State Seminoles

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Florida State Seminoles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Florida State Seminoles 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida State Seminoles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.