Spread: Houston Cougars (-34.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jacksonville State Gamecocks (80%) · Jacksonville State Gamecocks at 51¢ · $786 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
5
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 80%
$785.74
-$11.32
50.8¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidJacksonville State Gamecocks at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 51¢ | $766.97 | $751.93 | -$15.04 | 53% 1833-1635 (3468) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 41¢ | $13.21 | $16.12 | +$2.9 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 50¢ | $58.5 | $12.74 | +$0.86 | 52% 472-438 (910) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Houston Cougarsavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.45 | -$0.05 | 33% 307-627 (934) |
Invested
$766.97
Value
$751.93
PnL
-$15.04
Record
53%
1833-1635 (3468)
Invested
$13.21
Value
$16.12
PnL
+$2.9
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$58.5
Value
$12.74
PnL
+$0.86
Record
52%
472-438 (910)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.05
Record
33%
307-627 (934)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.