Spread: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-23.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rutgers Scarlet Knights (67%) · Rutgers Scarlet Knights at 63¢ · $786 held · ended Nov 10

Rutgers Scarlet Knights63¢NJIT Highlanders37¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Consensus Traders

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$785.74

Combined PnL

$32.77

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 63¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRutgers Scarlet Knights at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rutgers Scarlet Knights63%

NJIT Highlanders37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rutgers Scarlet Knights4 traders

Total Value$599.23

Total Shares995

Combined PnL+$31.13

NJIT Highlanders2 traders

Total Value$7.59

Total Shares14

Combined PnL+$1.65

Rutgers Scarlet Knights — 67%NJIT Highlanders — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Rutgers Scarlet Knightsavg 56.1¢	$300.39	$321.06	+$20.68	56% 488-383 (871)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	NJIT Highlandersavg 41.6¢	$174.67	$178.92	+$22.8	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Rutgers Scarlet Knights leg	Rutgers Scarlet Knightsavg 46.6¢	$70.34	$90.6	+$20.26
└ NJIT Highlanders leg	NJIT Highlandersavg 41.6¢	$91.85	$88.32	+$2.54
RN1	Rutgers Scarlet Knightsavg 58.2¢	$152.6	$157.2	+$4.6	58% 3771-2731 (6502)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Rutgers Scarlet Knightsavg 54¢	$90.4	$92.08	+$1.67	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rutgers Scarlet Knightsavg 46.5¢	$24.72	$28.89	+$4.17	49% 440-464 (904)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	NJIT Highlandersavg 41¢	$3.69	$5.54	+$1.85	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	NJIT Highlandersavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.05	-$0.2	26% 177-517 (694)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Invested

$300.39

Value

$321.06

PnL

+$20.68

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

38791873984189ARB<$100

NJIT Highlanders

Invested

$174.67

Value

$178.92

PnL

+$22.8

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Rutgers Scarlet Knights$70.3446.6¢+$20.26

NJIT Highlanders$91.8541.6¢+$2.54

RN1

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Invested

$152.6

Value

$157.2

PnL

+$4.6

Record

58%

3771-2731 (6502)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Invested

$90.4

Value

$92.08

PnL

+$1.67

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Pan9X<$100

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Invested

$24.72

Value

$28.89

PnL

+$4.17

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

NJIT Highlanders

Invested

$3.69

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$1.85

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

NJIT Highlanders

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.2

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

Research grade

AvoidRutgers Scarlet Knights at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rutgers Scarlet Knights wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.