Syracuse Orange vs. Indiana Hoosiers: O/U 148.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 54¢ · $467 held · ended Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$466.96
$54.93
49¢ → 53.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 49.1¢ | $257.18 | $310.92 | +$53.73 | 52% 271-247 (518) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $45.43 | $55.06 | +$9.63 | 100% 29-0 (29) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $44.65 | $42.28 | -$2.38 | 50% 76-76 (152) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 52.9¢ | $24.63 | $27.3 | +$2.68 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $12.39 | $12.5 | +$0.12 | 54% 248-213 (461) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $42 | $11.76 | -$11.34 | 49% 398-410 (808) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 46.5¢ | $10 | $7.15 | +$2.5 | 20% 48-194 (242) |
Invested
$257.18
Value
$310.92
PnL
+$53.73
Record
52%
271-247 (518)
Invested
$45.43
Value
$55.06
PnL
+$9.63
Record
100%
29-0 (29)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$44.65
Value
$42.28
PnL
-$2.38
Record
50%
76-76 (152)
Invested
$24.63
Value
$27.3
PnL
+$2.68
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
RN1<$100Invested
$12.39
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$0.12
Record
54%
248-213 (461)
Invested
$42
Value
$11.76
PnL
-$11.34
Record
49%
398-410 (808)
Invested
$10
Value
$7.15
PnL
+$2.5
Record
20%
48-194 (242)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.