Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas Jayhawks (50%) · Kansas Jayhawks at 66¢ · $575 held · ends Nov 11

Kentucky Wildcats35¢Kansas Jayhawks65¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kansas Jayhawks

Consensus Traders

Kansas Jayhawks 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$574.95

Combined PnL

$0.95

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 65.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKansas Jayhawks at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas Jayhawks

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kentucky Wildcats35%

Kansas Jayhawks66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kentucky Wildcats4 traders

Total Value$132.74

Total Shares390

Combined PnL-$6.83

Kansas Jayhawks4 traders

Total Value$303.99

Total Shares437

Combined PnL+$7.78

Kentucky Wildcats — 50%Kansas Jayhawks — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kansas Jayhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kansas Jayhawks) and the top 1000 (7 on Kentucky Wildcats) disagree here.

ctrKentucky Wildcats 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedKansas Jayhawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kentucky Wildcats 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kansas Jayhawksavg 63.9¢	$137.24	$138.22	+$0.98	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Kansas Jayhawks leg	Kansas Jayhawksavg 63.9¢	$71.56	$73.36	+$1.8
└ Kentucky Wildcats leg	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 34.9¢	$65.68	$64.86	-$0.82
0xheavy888CTR	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 35.8¢	$130.22	$123.56	-$6.66	56% 119-94 (213)
FL Flaznorp	Kansas Jayhawksavg 64¢	$107.39	$109.91	+$2.52	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
HO HomeRunHazard	Kansas Jayhawksavg 63.3¢	$106.07	$109.83	+$3.76	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888	Kansas Jayhawksavg 64¢	$141.59	$49.8	+$1.5	50% 262-258 (520)
nigiri99<$100	Kansas Jayhawksavg 65¢	$34.45	$34.45	+$0	52% 128-119 (247)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 33¢	$3.3	$3.4	+$0.1	26% 234-653 (887)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 36¢	$3.6	$3.4	-$0.2	26% 177-517 (694)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kentucky Wildcatsavg 35¢	$2.45	$2.38	-$0.07	49% 440-464 (904)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kansas Jayhawks

Invested

$137.24

Value

$138.22

PnL

+$0.98

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Kansas Jayhawks$71.5663.9¢+$1.8

Kentucky Wildcats$65.6834.9¢-$0.82

0xheavy888CTR

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$130.22

Value

$123.56

PnL

-$6.66

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

Flaznorp

Kansas Jayhawks

Invested

$107.39

Value

$109.91

PnL

+$2.52

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

HomeRunHazard

Kansas Jayhawks

Invested

$106.07

Value

$109.83

PnL

+$3.76

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888

Kansas Jayhawks

Invested

$141.59

Value

$49.8

PnL

+$1.5

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

nigiri99<$100

Kansas Jayhawks

Invested

$34.45

Value

$34.45

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

26%

234-653 (887)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kentucky Wildcats

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

Research grade

AvoidKansas Jayhawks at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas Jayhawks

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kansas Jayhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kansas Jayhawks) and the top 1000 (7 on Kentucky Wildcats) disagree here.

ctrKentucky Wildcats 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedKansas Jayhawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kentucky Wildcats 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kansas Jayhawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.