Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $508 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$507.8
$-1.7K
53.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 52.5¢ | $466.11 | $367.07 | -$99.04 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $66.76 | $75.64 | +$8.88 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 54.6¢ | $1.4K | $53.44 | $-1.3K | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $8 | $11 | +$3 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 53.9¢ | $335.29 | $0.62 | -$334.67 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
Invested
$466.11
Value
$367.07
PnL
-$99.04
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$66.76
Value
$75.64
PnL
+$8.88
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,369.93
Value
$53.44
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$8
Value
$11
PnL
+$3
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$335.29
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$334.67
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.