CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$462.26

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 100¢

+55% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,714

Combined PnL+$494.68

Under3 traders

Total Value$8.56

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$32.42

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 62.1¢	$938	$1.4K	+$481.4	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 80.6¢	$170.27	$184.66	+$14.39	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 84¢	$11.6	$10.5	-$1.1	31% 170-384 (554)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 27.4¢	$19.05	$4.18	-$14.87	25% 218-637 (855)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$11.31	$2.26	-$9.04	25% 217-656 (873)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$10.63	$2.13	-$8.5	25% 216-657 (873)

RN1

Over

Invested

$938

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$481.4

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$170.27

Value

$184.66

PnL

+$14.39

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$11.6

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$1.1

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.05

Value

$4.18

PnL

-$14.87

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.31

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$9.04

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.63

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$8.5

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.