Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 45¢ · $34 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$33.69
-$1.96
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $9.47 | $10.41 | +$0.95 | 49% 14703-15372 (30075) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $6.96 | $8.51 | -$1.05 | 51% 25691-24411 (50102) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $7.92 | $7.12 | -$0.79 | 54% 2569-2229 (4798) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $6.12 | $5.4 | -$0.72 | 53% 1404-1252 (2656) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.59 | $2.24 | -$0.35 | 50% 21143-21403 (42546) |
Invested
$9.47
Value
$10.41
PnL
+$0.95
Record
49%
14703-15372 (30075)
Invested
$6.96
Value
$8.51
PnL
-$1.05
Record
51%
25691-24411 (50102)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.12
PnL
-$0.79
Record
54%
2569-2229 (4798)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$5.4
PnL
-$0.72
Record
53%
1404-1252 (2656)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$2.24
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
21143-21403 (42546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.