Will Levante UD win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 86¢ · $491 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$490.88
-$17.88
87.7¢ → 85.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
176h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 88¢ | $281.03 | $272.96 | -$8.07 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 87¢ | $153.99 | $148.68 | -$5.31 | 50% 27770-27632 (55402) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 89.9¢ | $26.01 | $24.2 | -$1.81 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $25.86 | $23.5 | -$2.36 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $21.63 | $21.25 | -$0.38 | 39% 1339-2113 (3452) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $0.14 | $0.19 | +$0.06 | 50% 36339-35820 (72159) |
Invested
$281.03
Value
$272.96
PnL
-$8.07
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
Invested
$153.99
Value
$148.68
PnL
-$5.31
Record
50%
27770-27632 (55402)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.01
Value
$24.2
PnL
-$1.81
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
Invested
$25.86
Value
$23.5
PnL
-$2.36
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$21.63
Value
$21.25
PnL
-$0.38
Record
39%
1339-2113 (3452)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.19
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
36339-35820 (72159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.