CD Tarancón vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 53¢ · $44 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$43.72
-$2.53
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $26.56 | $23.64 | -$2.92 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $6.89 | $5.79 | -$1.11 | 50% 27765-27630 (55395) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $5 | $5.05 | +$0.05 | 53% 1083-955 (2038) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $4.04 | $4.8 | +$0.76 | 51% 7648-7364 (15012) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $3.76 | $4.44 | +$0.68 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
Invested
$26.56
Value
$23.64
PnL
-$2.92
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$6.89
Value
$5.79
PnL
-$1.11
Record
50%
27765-27630 (55395)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
1083-955 (2038)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.04
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.76
Record
51%
7648-7364 (15012)
Invested
$3.76
Value
$4.44
PnL
+$0.68
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.