Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 54% (1089–923, n=2012) · PM monthly #511 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$34.8K
Record
1089W / 923L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 2012 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1557
Source
PM monthly #511
Record (90 d)
742/1324 · 56%
Trades
1,603
Markets
2,204
Volume
$672.8K
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 8 on the consensus side (50%)- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Under $565 · now 56¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (15% of 15)
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic $555 · now 56¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
- Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 209.5Over $535 · now 55¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Under)
- Spread: 76ers (-11.5)Bulls $515 · now 53¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (39% of 20)
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies $475 · now 48¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Pelicans)
- Will FC Penafiel win on 2026-11-02?Yes $242 · now 51¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-11-02?No $4 · now 54¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Landskrona BoIS win on 2026-11-02?Yes $2 · now 55¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
Specialties
1,820 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 50¢- Other Sports
+3 pts
side won 53% of 177 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +5%
- NHL
+22 pts
side won 73% of 11 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +20%
- MLB
+2 pts
side won 55% of 87 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: College Football — held side won 20% of 15 at an average 53¢ entry (−33 pts against the price), ROI −33%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 34% of 88)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 44% of 702)
- 50–70¢: 51%(won 57% of 925)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 76% of 105)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.