Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold CDA Navalcarnero, while the market favors Real Betis Balompié (67%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold CDA Navalcarnero (50%) · CDA Navalcarnero at 34¢ · $200 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
CDA Navalcarnero
4
CDA Navalcarnero 50%
1 arb excluded
$200.37
$9.59
Research grade
NeutralCDA Navalcarnero at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Real Betis Balompié 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on CDA Navalcarnero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Real Betis Balompiéavg 68.7¢ | $108.3 | $112.09 | +$6.21 | 52% 49472-46424 (95896) |
| └ Real Betis Balompié leg | Real Betis Balompiéavg 68.7¢ | $66.09 | $63.96 | -$1.08 | |
| └ CDA Navalcarnero leg | CDA Navalcarneroavg 29.4¢ | $42.21 | $48.12 | +$7.29 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | CDA Navalcarneroavg 30¢ | $40.54 | $45.23 | +$6.08 | 57% 60850-45924 (106774) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Real Betis Balompiéavg 71¢ | $31.95 | $29.93 | -$2.03 | 50% 33789-34035 (67824) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Real Betis Balompiéavg 20¢ | $2.42 | $8.03 | +$5.62 | 47% 123-136 (259) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | CDA Navalcarneroavg 34¢ | $5.18 | $5.1 | -$0.08 | 53% 3139-2754 (5893) |
Invested
$108.3
Value
$112.09
PnL
+$6.21
Record
52%
49472-46424 (95896)
Both legs:
Invested
$40.54
Value
$45.23
PnL
+$6.08
Record
57%
60850-45924 (106774)
Invested
$31.95
Value
$29.93
PnL
-$2.03
Record
50%
33789-34035 (67824)
Invested
$2.42
Value
$8.03
PnL
+$5.62
Record
47%
123-136 (259)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$5.18
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
3139-2754 (5893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.