CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 5.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 97¢ · $762 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$761.98
$83.6
77.5¢ → 97¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 81.6¢ | $346.63 | $373.45 | +$26.82 | 50% 1414-1418 (2832) |
 RN1 | Underavg 73.1¢ | $312.59 | $370.85 | +$58.26 | 58% 3762-2719 (6481) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 15.3¢ | $16.52 | $15.07 | -$1.45 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $2.04 | $1.91 | -$0.13 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $0.6 | $0.7 | +$0.1 | 31% 171-389 (560) |
Invested
$346.63
Value
$373.45
PnL
+$26.82
Record
50%
1414-1418 (2832)
RN1Invested
$312.59
Value
$370.85
PnL
+$58.26
Record
58%
3762-2719 (6481)
Invested
$16.52
Value
$15.07
PnL
-$1.45
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$2.04
Value
$1.91
PnL
-$0.13
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
31%
171-389 (560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.