Valencia CF leading at halftime?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 71¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 10

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$241.67

Combined PnL

-$0.62

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 70.5¢

-22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$211.96

Total Shares236

Combined PnL+$0

No2 traders

Total Value$29.71

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$0.62

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$93.28	$93.28	+$0	24% 200-618 (818)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$56.95	$56.95	+$0	24% 201-627 (828)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$31.13	$31.13	+$0	24% 200-638 (838)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$30.6	$30.6	+$0	24% 204-633 (837)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 10.2¢	$25.86	$25.3	-$0.56	50% 1378-1394 (2772)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 10.1¢	$4.47	$4.41	-$0.06	29% 154-375 (529)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.28

Value

$93.28

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

200-618 (818)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.95

Value

$56.95

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

201-627 (828)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.13

Value

$31.13

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

200-638 (838)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.6

Value

$30.6

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

204-633 (837)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$25.86

Value

$25.3

PnL

-$0.56

Record

50%

1378-1394 (2772)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

154-375 (529)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.