UE Tavernes vs. Valencia CF: O/U 6.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 61¢ · $93 held · ends Nov 10

Over39¢Under61¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$93.09

Combined PnL

$10.86

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$83.34

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$14.23

Over1 trader

Total Value$9.75

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$3.37

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 48¢	$60.3	$72.23	+$11.5	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$13.25	$9.75	-$3.37	58% 49623-35721 (85344)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 43¢	$3.87	$5.49	+$1.58	49% 14201-14819 (29020)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Underavg 48.9¢	$3.03	$3.78	+$0.75	51% 11725-11123 (22848)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 47¢	$1.41	$1.84	+$0.41	51% 7458-7190 (14648)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$60.3

Value

$72.23

PnL

+$11.5

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.25

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$3.37

Record

58%

49623-35721 (85344)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$3.87

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$1.58

Record

49%

14201-14819 (29020)

iWasEnough<$100

Under

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.75

Record

51%

11725-11123 (22848)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

7458-7190 (14648)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.