Spread: CD Leganés (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold CD Leganés (50%) · CD Leganés at 61¢ · $584 held · ends Nov 10

CD Leganés61¢CF Trival Valderas39¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Leganés

Consensus Traders

CD Leganés 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$583.57

Combined PnL

-$10.86

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 61¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Leganés at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Leganés

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CD Leganés61%

CF Trival Valderas39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Leganés2 traders

Total Value$186.29

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$14.15

CF Trival Valderas2 traders

Total Value$33.89

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$3.29

CD Leganés — 50%CF Trival Valderas — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on CD Leganés. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Leganés 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrCD Leganés 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000CD Leganés 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	CF Trival Valderasavg 38.3¢	$356.45	$363.38	+$6.94	52% 49335-46295 (95630)
└ CF Trival Valderas leg	CF Trival Valderasavg 38.3¢	$194.92	$198.4	+$3.49
└ CD Leganés leg	CD Leganésavg 59.7¢	$161.53	$164.98	+$3.45
UP UpTheBlues	CD Leganésavg 64.3¢	$164.36	$150.8	-$13.56	57% 60850-45925 (106775)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	CD Leganésavg 61.2¢	$36.2	$35.49	-$0.59	50% 24077-24172 (48249)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	CF Trival Valderasavg 32.1¢	$19.24	$20.57	+$1.99	50% 33652-33928 (67580)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	CF Trival Valderasavg 33¢	$12.21	$13.32	+$1.3	46% 30947-36343 (67290)

FlaznorpARB<$100

CF Trival Valderas

Invested

$356.45

Value

$363.38

PnL

+$6.94

Record

52%

49335-46295 (95630)

Both legs:

CF Trival Valderas$194.9238.3¢+$3.49

CD Leganés$161.5359.7¢+$3.45

UpTheBlues

CD Leganés

Invested

$164.36

Value

$150.8

PnL

-$13.56

Record

57%

60850-45925 (106775)

omnibus-076daa<$100

CD Leganés

Invested

$36.2

Value

$35.49

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

24077-24172 (48249)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

CF Trival Valderas

Invested

$19.24

Value

$20.57

PnL

+$1.99

Record

50%

33652-33928 (67580)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

CF Trival Valderas

Invested

$12.21

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$1.3

Record

46%

30947-36343 (67290)

Research grade

NeutralCD Leganés at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CD Leganés

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on CD Leganés. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Leganés 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrCD Leganés 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000CD Leganés 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Leganés wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.