CF Trival Valderas vs. CD Leganés: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 66¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$8.8K
$640.31
60.2¢ → 65.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Overavg 60¢ | $7.6K | $8.3K | +$636 | 51% 3672-3498 (7170) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 63.3¢ | $282.05 | $288.09 | +$6.03 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Overavg 65¢ | $135.39 | $136.43 | +$1.04 | 8% 71-772 (843) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 36.2¢ | $85.4 | $81.38 | -$4.02 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 61.7¢ | $41.61 | $43.1 | +$1.48 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $3.36 | $3.13 | -$0.23 | 24% 208-644 (852) |
Invested
$7,632
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$636
Record
51%
3672-3498 (7170)
Invested
$282.05
Value
$288.09
PnL
+$6.03
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Invested
$135.39
Value
$136.43
PnL
+$1.04
Record
8%
71-772 (843)
Invested
$85.4
Value
$81.38
PnL
-$4.02
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$41.61
Value
$43.1
PnL
+$1.48
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$3.13
PnL
-$0.23
Record
24%
208-644 (852)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.