Consensus PnL $81K · win rate 54% (1446–1226, n=2672) · PM monthly #756 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$81.2K
Record
1446W / 1226L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 2672 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1487
Source
PM monthly #756
Trades
231
Markets
3,066
Volume
$2.0M
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 20 on the consensus side (45%)- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego $3.1K · now 67¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (87% of 16)
- Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $2.2K · now 2¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (No)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Alex MolcanAlex Molcan $954 · now 44¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (Nuno Borges)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $576 · now 57¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (No)
- Brest: Moise Kouame vs Martin DammMartin Damm $159 · now 28¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Moise Kouame)
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio $25 · now 75¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (64% of 24)
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-11-01?No $21 · now 28¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5Under $20 · now 1¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Over)
Specialties
1,449 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 59¢- NBA
+45 pts
side won 98% of 107 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +44%
- College Football
+46 pts
side won 100% of 54 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +47%
- NHL
+43 pts
side won 100% of 30 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +45%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 50% of 84)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 83% of 382)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 95% of 541)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 99% of 442)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.