Spread: Ohio (-4.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (OH) (33%) · Miami (OH) at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Miami (OH)
6
Miami (OH) 33%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$397.7
66.8¢ → 94¢
+41% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMiami (OH) at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CM cm2897 | Miami (OH)avg 64¢ | $806.65 | $1.2K | +$378.12 | 49% 1097-1127 (2224) |
65 6512395314597884 | Miami (OH)avg 76.8¢ | $336.03 | $337.86 | +$1.84 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 52.4¢ | $281.8 | $315.75 | +$33.95 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
| └ Miami (OH) leg | Miami (OH)avg 52.4¢ | $151.26 | $183.25 | +$31.99 | |
| └ Ohio leg | Ohioavg 36¢ | $130.54 | $132.51 | +$1.97 | |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Ohioavg 36¢ | $180 | $182.5 | +$2.5 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Ohioavg 36¢ | $60.26 | $61.1 | +$0.84 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Ohioavg 36¢ | $27.24 | $44.46 | +$17.22 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Ohioavg 6¢ | $8.43 | $5.62 | -$2.81 | 28% 299-766 (1065) |
Invested
$806.65
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$378.12
Record
49%
1097-1127 (2224)
Invested
$336.03
Value
$337.86
PnL
+$1.84
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$281.8
Value
$315.75
PnL
+$33.95
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Both legs:
Invested
$180
Value
$182.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$60.26
Value
$61.1
PnL
+$0.84
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$27.24
Value
$44.46
PnL
+$17.22
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$8.43
Value
$5.62
PnL
-$2.81
Record
28%
299-766 (1065)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.