Spread: Ohio (-6.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (57%) · Ohio at 72¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Ohio
7
Ohio 57%
$4.3K
-$359.82
57.5¢ → 71.5¢
+24% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOhio at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Ohioavg 58.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$238 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
65 6512395314597884 | Ohioavg 55.1¢ | $749.2 | $890.8 | +$141.6 | 51% 3172-3072 (6244) |
BI biying88888CTR | Miami (OH)avg 40.9¢ | $1.0K | $631.38 | -$380.56 | 27% 63-170 (233) |
CM cm2897CTR | Miami (OH)avg 42.5¢ | $837.97 | $483.39 | -$354.59 | 49% 1097-1127 (2224) |
38 38791873984189 | Ohioavg 65¢ | $123.24 | $119.5 | -$3.74 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Ohioavg 47¢ | $17.39 | $16.84 | -$0.55 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 34¢ | $1.7 | $1.72 | +$0.02 | 54% 1657-1434 (3091) |
RN1Invested
$1,897.3
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$238
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$749.2
Value
$890.8
PnL
+$141.6
Record
51%
3172-3072 (6244)
Invested
$1,011.94
Value
$631.38
PnL
-$380.56
Record
27%
63-170 (233)
Invested
$837.97
Value
$483.39
PnL
-$354.59
Record
49%
1097-1127 (2224)
Invested
$123.24
Value
$119.5
PnL
-$3.74
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$17.39
Value
$16.84
PnL
-$0.55
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
1657-1434 (3091)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.