Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 67.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 98¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 11

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 13%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$0.24

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares10,783

Combined PnL+$0.76

Over7 traders

Total Value$196.22

Total Shares10,070

Combined PnL-$1

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	Underavg 98¢	$10.6K	$10.6K	+$0.76	37% 19-32 (51)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 1.9¢	$93.9	$96.27	+$2.37	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Overavg 1.9¢	$32.01	$32.85	+$0.84	49% 1097-1127 (2224)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 2.1¢	$34.61	$23.9	-$10.71	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$4	$20	+$16	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 2.1¢	$20.5	$14.5	-$6	56% 504-395 (899)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$10	$7.25	-$2.75	48% 969-1052 (2021)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 2.2¢	$2.2	$1.45	-$0.75	49% 450-474 (924)

pagliacci4

Under

Invested

$10,572.13

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$0.76

Record

37%

19-32 (51)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.9

Value

$96.27

PnL

+$2.37

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

cm2897CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.01

Value

$32.85

PnL

+$0.84

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.61

Value

$23.9

PnL

-$10.71

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$20

PnL

+$16

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.5

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$6

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$2.75

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.