Spread: Toledo (-17.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (29%) · Toledo at 62¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Toledo
7
Toledo 29%
$6.5K
$236.03
56.1¢ → 61.5¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralToledo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Toledoavg 56.1¢ | $3.3K | $3.6K | +$314.2 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
 RN1CTR | UMassavg 43.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$77.33 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | UMassavg 44.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$1.06 | 53% 1851-1666 (3517) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | UMassavg 44.4¢ | $306.88 | $307.43 | +$0.55 | 50% 3301-3257 (6558) |
38 38791873984189CTR | UMassavg 44.4¢ | $308.69 | $305.34 | +$1.08 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | UMassavg 42.6¢ | $78.81 | $74.91 | -$3.9 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
US User7429<$100 | Toledoavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $3.33 | +$0.38 | 25% 117-356 (473) |
Invested
$3,283.31
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$314.2
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,235.96
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$77.33
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$1,080.89
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$1.06
Record
53%
1851-1666 (3517)
Invested
$306.88
Value
$307.43
PnL
+$0.55
Record
50%
3301-3257 (6558)
Invested
$308.69
Value
$305.34
PnL
+$1.08
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$78.81
Value
$74.91
PnL
-$3.9
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$3.33
PnL
+$0.38
Record
25%
117-356 (473)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.