Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 49¢ · $939 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$939.12
-$22.06
51.4¢ → 49¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 51.8¢ | $548.97 | $519.41 | -$19.53 | 51% 25773-24474 (50247) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 51.2¢ | $207.37 | $205.71 | +$4.57 | 50% 21194-21457 (42651) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 50.5¢ | $200.33 | $194.33 | -$6 | 58% 46712-33673 (80385) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $10.69 | $10.07 | -$0.62 | 50% 25834-25541 (51375) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $10 | $9.6 | -$0.49 | 53% 2579-2261 (4840) |
Invested
$548.97
Value
$519.41
PnL
-$19.53
Record
51%
25773-24474 (50247)
Invested
$207.37
Value
$205.71
PnL
+$4.57
Record
50%
21194-21457 (42651)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$200.33
Value
$194.33
PnL
-$6
Record
58%
46712-33673 (80385)
Invested
$10.69
Value
$10.07
PnL
-$0.62
Record
50%
25834-25541 (51375)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.6
PnL
-$0.49
Record
53%
2579-2261 (4840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.