CD Ñublense vs. CSD Colo-Colo: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 90¢ · $378 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$378.46
$99.49
68.7¢ → 89.5¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 31.8¢ | $380.7 | $224.61 | +$103.69 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 69¢ | $90.03 | $84.86 | -$5.17 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 31.9¢ | $63.19 | $64.89 | +$1.7 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $5 | $2.05 | -$0.8 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $1.97 | $2.05 | +$0.08 | 52% 9497-8605 (18102) |
Invested
$380.7
Value
$224.61
PnL
+$103.69
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
VeryLucky888Invested
$90.03
Value
$84.86
PnL
-$5.17
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$63.19
Value
$64.89
PnL
+$1.7
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
RN1<$100Invested
$5
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0.8
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$1.97
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
9497-8605 (18102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.