Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD La Serena vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 46¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.2K
-$17.69
50.2¢ → 46¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 50.2¢ | $548.43 | $540.25 | -$8.18 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Overavg 50.2¢ | $535.72 | $527.73 | -$7.99 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51¢ | $153 | $151.5 | -$1.5 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.53 | -$0.02 | 52% 9018-8169 (17187) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $1.04 | $1.05 | +$0.01 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$548.43
Value
$540.25
PnL
-$8.18
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$535.72
Value
$527.73
PnL
-$7.99
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
VeryLucky888Invested
$153
Value
$151.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
9018-8169 (17187)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.