Will Mlada Boleslav vs. Vysocina Jihlava end in a draw?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$3.1K
$78.44
95.5¢ → 98.8¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QE qetuoa | Yesavg 95.4¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$80.57 | — |
 itoney17<$100 | Yesavg 98¢ | $89.91 | $90.64 | +$0.73 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 98¢ | $19.99 | $19.98 | -$0.01 | 41% 3010-4414 (7424) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $1.56 | $1.56 | +$0 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Noavg 1.9¢ | $0.77 | $0.81 | +$0.04 | 32% 205-443 (648) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3 | $0.1 | -$2.9 | — |
Invested
$2,940.06
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$80.57
Record
—
itoney17<$100Invested
$89.91
Value
$90.64
PnL
+$0.73
Record
—
Invested
$19.99
Value
$19.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
41%
3010-4414 (7424)
Invested
$1.56
Value
$1.56
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
Invested
$0.77
Value
$0.81
PnL
+$0.04
Record
32%
205-443 (648)
Invested
$3
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$2.9
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.