Consensus PnL $631K · win rate 43% (1308–1750, n=3058) · PM monthly #10 · holds 96 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$630.7K
Record
1308W / 1750L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 3058 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2264
Source
PM monthly #10
Record (90 d)
1200/2212 · 54%
Trades
143,714
Markets
9,310
Volume
$13.7M
Top consensus positions
96 in listed consensus markets · 89 of 96 on the consensus side (93%)- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $3.9K · now 62¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (56% of 48)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $2.4K · now 38¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (72% of 62)
- Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?No $363 · now 89¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $312 · now 2¢with the consensus (89% of 18)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?No $280 · now 7¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $228 · now 3¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $168 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $166 · now 2¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
Specialties
3,423 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 66¢- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 83% of 439 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +2%
- Esports
+5 pts
side won 83% of 191 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +2%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 95% of 146 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 50% of 105 at an average 55¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 8% of 943)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 43% of 174)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 66% of 170)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 97% of 2136)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.