Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-11-05?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$7.03

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 78.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$967.37

Total Shares1,248

Combined PnL-$6.28

Yes2 traders

Total Value$88.87

Total Shares409

Combined PnL-$0.75

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.3¢	$478.86	$486.51	-$1.11	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
LI Limousin	Noavg 78.9¢	$316.22	$310.78	-$5.45	53% 1408-1254 (2662)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$85.96	$84.48	-$1.48	51% 1368-1329 (2697)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 76¢	$76.36	$77.86	+$1.51	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$47.19	$46.44	-$0.75	64% 9920-5524 (15444)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$42.43	$42.43	+$0	64% 9962-5592 (15554)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$7.75	+$0.25	58% 46658-33622 (80280)

Flaznorp

Invested

$478.86

Value

$486.51

PnL

-$1.11

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

Limousin

Invested

$316.22

Value

$310.78

PnL

-$5.45

Record

53%

1408-1254 (2662)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$85.96

Value

$84.48

PnL

-$1.48

Record

51%

1368-1329 (2697)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$76.36

Value

$77.86

PnL

+$1.51

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.19

Value

$46.44

PnL

-$0.75

Record

64%

9920-5524 (15444)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.43

Value

$42.43

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

9962-5592 (15554)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.