Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will SC Braga win on 2026-11-05?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$1.2K
-$2.42
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forgotmydinnerCTR | Yesavg 49.1¢ | $491.26 | $484.99 | -$5 | 17% 93-457 (550) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 51¢ | $437.77 | $442.06 | +$4.29 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 52¢ | $150.75 | $77.64 | -$0.75 | 50% 1297-1284 (2581) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 52¢ | $144.73 | $74.54 | -$0.72 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $26 | $25.75 | -$0.25 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $44.75 | $23.05 | -$0.22 | 51% 1359-1321 (2680) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $36.84 | $18.97 | +$0.18 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5.78 | $5.84 | +$0.06 | 50% 25741-25428 (51169) |
Invested
$491.26
Value
$484.99
PnL
-$5
Record
17%
93-457 (550)
Invested
$437.77
Value
$442.06
PnL
+$4.29
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$150.75
Value
$77.64
PnL
-$0.75
Record
50%
1297-1284 (2581)
Invested
$144.73
Value
$74.54
PnL
-$0.72
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
Invested
$26
Value
$25.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
Invested
$44.75
Value
$23.05
PnL
-$0.22
Record
51%
1359-1321 (2680)
Invested
$36.84
Value
$18.97
PnL
+$0.18
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
Invested
$5.78
Value
$5.84
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
25741-25428 (51169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.