Consensus PnL $122K · win rate 44% (131–170, n=301) · PM monthly #48 · holds 111 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$122.2K
Record
131W / 170L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 301 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2242
Source
PM monthly #48
Record (90 d)
34/233 · 15%
Trades
2,167
Markets
469
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
111 in listed consensus markets · 82 of 111 on the consensus side (74%)- Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes $364 · now 91¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes $203 · now 23¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $178 · now 53¢with the consensus (69% of 26)
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $154 · now 39¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (62% of 21)
- Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?Yes $113 · now 56¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (91% of 11)
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $100 · now 5¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $97 · now 5¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $90 · now 4¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
Specialties
173 settled consensus markets · held side won 20% at an average entry of 14¢- Elections
+13 pts
side won 32% of 28 · avg entry 19¢
ROI +17%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 7% of 14 · avg entry 2¢
ROI +7%
- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 17% of 65 · avg entry 12¢
ROI +22%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 10% of 10 at an average 10¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 85%(won 7% of 147)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 71% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 100% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 9%(won 100% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.