Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Inter Club d'Escaldes (60%) · Inter Club d'Escaldes at 63¢ · $48 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Inter Club d'Escaldes
5
Inter Club d'Escaldes 60%
$48.42
-$0.85
Research grade
NeutralInter Club d'Escaldes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Inter Club d'Escaldes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | FK Crvena zvezdaavg 38.2¢ | $35.49 | $34.88 | -$0.62 | 53% 1408-1254 (2662) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | FK Crvena zvezdaavg 38.2¢ | $4.37 | $4.24 | -$0.13 | 52% 1362-1281 (2643) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Inter Club d'Escaldesavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.1 | -$0.05 | 51% 25699-24415 (50114) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Inter Club d'Escaldesavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.1 | -$0.05 | 50% 25801-25492 (51293) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Inter Club d'Escaldesavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $3.1 | +$0 | 58% 46658-33622 (80280) |
Invested
$35.49
Value
$34.88
PnL
-$0.62
Record
53%
1408-1254 (2662)
Invested
$4.37
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
1362-1281 (2643)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
51%
25699-24415 (50114)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
25801-25492 (51293)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
$3.1
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
46658-33622 (80280)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.