FK Crvena zvezda vs. Inter Club d'Escaldes: O/U 3.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 59¢ · $67K held · ends Nov 5

Over59¢Under41¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 13%

Total Value

$66.6K

Combined PnL

-$606.56

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$39.0K

Total Shares66,652

Combined PnL+$333.61

Under7 traders

Total Value$27.6K

Total Shares66,572

Combined PnL-$940.17

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU juice-fruit	Overavg 59.2¢	$10.3K	$39.0K	+$333.61	58% 57-41 (98)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Underavg 43¢	$25.8K	$24.9K	-$900.77	53% 6257-5537 (11794)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 42¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$13.38	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 42¢	$916.91	$905.99	-$10.92	50% 25811-25501 (51312)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 42¢	$506	$493.95	-$12.05	50% 28410-28315 (56725)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 42.6¢	$242.33	$160.32	-$1.65	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 42.5¢	$64.22	$40.28	-$0.94	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$13.32	$12.87	-$0.45	55% 9735-8124 (17859)

juice-fruit

Over

Invested

$10,344.11

Value

$39.0K

PnL

+$333.61

Record

58%

57-41 (98)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Under

Invested

$25,800.76

Value

$24.9K

PnL

-$900.77

Record

53%

6257-5537 (11794)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,124.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$13.38

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$916.91

Value

$905.99

PnL

-$10.92

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$506

Value

$493.95

PnL

-$12.05

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$242.33

Value

$160.32

PnL

-$1.65

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64.22

Value

$40.28

PnL

-$0.94

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.32

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$0.45

Record

55%

9735-8124 (17859)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.