Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-11-05?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 28¢ · $664 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 100%
$663.96
$14.6
27.9¢ → 28.5¢
+2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 27.6¢ | $264.1 | $272.71 | +$8.61 | 64% 9878-5564 (15442) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 27.4¢ | $145.99 | $152.08 | +$6.09 | 64% 9844-5498 (15342) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Noavg 29¢ | $122.05 | $119.91 | -$2.14 | 50% 1301-1287 (2588) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 27.9¢ | $295.04 | $84.09 | +$1.62 | 51% 25630-24353 (49983) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $62.24 | $17.74 | +$0.31 | 50% 25743-25431 (51174) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 28.9¢ | $8.58 | $8.6 | +$0.01 | 48% 60760-65418 (126178) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $5.87 | $5.77 | -$0.1 | 51% 1362-1323 (2685) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $2.76 | $2.71 | -$0.05 | 53% 1400-1248 (2648) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 27.5¢ | $9.94 | $0.35 | +$0.24 | 58% 46330-33448 (79778) |
Invested
$264.1
Value
$272.71
PnL
+$8.61
Record
64%
9878-5564 (15442)
Invested
$145.99
Value
$152.08
PnL
+$6.09
Record
64%
9844-5498 (15342)
Invested
$122.05
Value
$119.91
PnL
-$2.14
Record
50%
1301-1287 (2588)
Invested
$295.04
Value
$84.09
PnL
+$1.62
Record
51%
25630-24353 (49983)
Invested
$62.24
Value
$17.74
PnL
+$0.31
Record
50%
25743-25431 (51174)
Invested
$8.58
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
60760-65418 (126178)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$5.77
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
1362-1323 (2685)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.71
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
1400-1248 (2648)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$9.94
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0.24
Record
58%
46330-33448 (79778)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.