Will Lincoln Red Imps FC win on 2026-11-05?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $612 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$612.33
$7.35
89.9¢ → 91.5¢
+2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 89.2¢ | $220.5 | $224.43 | +$3.93 | 53% 16795-14918 (31713) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 90.4¢ | $162.8 | $163.79 | +$0.9 | 51% 25699-24415 (50114) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $94.5 | $95.55 | +$1.05 | 51% 37655-36884 (74539) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $63.11 | $63.46 | +$0.35 | 64% 9920-5524 (15444) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $27.96 | $28.89 | +$0.93 | 48% 61030-65863 (126893) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $28.13 | $28.3 | +$0.17 | 50% 1309-1291 (2600) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $5.48 | $5.46 | -$0.02 | 53% 1408-1254 (2662) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $2.41 | $2.45 | +$0.04 | 50% 25801-25492 (51293) |
Invested
$220.5
Value
$224.43
PnL
+$3.93
Record
53%
16795-14918 (31713)
Invested
$162.8
Value
$163.79
PnL
+$0.9
Record
51%
25699-24415 (50114)
Invested
$94.5
Value
$95.55
PnL
+$1.05
Record
51%
37655-36884 (74539)
Invested
$63.11
Value
$63.46
PnL
+$0.35
Record
64%
9920-5524 (15444)
Invested
$27.96
Value
$28.89
PnL
+$0.93
Record
48%
61030-65863 (126893)
Invested
$28.13
Value
$28.3
PnL
+$0.17
Record
50%
1309-1291 (2600)
Invested
$5.48
Value
$5.46
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
1408-1254 (2662)
Invested
$2.41
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
25801-25492 (51293)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.