Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-11-05?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$53.2
64¢ → 64.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $654.92 | $700.99 | +$43.11 | 51% 25699-24415 (50114) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 64¢ | $423.38 | $426.69 | +$3.31 | 50% 28405-28303 (56708) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 64.1¢ | $307.62 | $309.89 | +$2.27 | 64% 9920-5524 (15444) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $100.5 | $107.38 | +$6.88 | 50% 25801-25492 (51293) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33¢ | $75.71 | $82.59 | +$6.88 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64¢ | $24.79 | $24.79 | -$0 | |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $70.21 | $74.11 | +$3.9 | 51% 6334-6121 (12455) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $24.31 | $24.56 | +$0.25 | 48% 61030-65863 (126893) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $23.03 | $23.21 | +$0.18 | 49% 4474-4672 (9146) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $22.51 | $22.69 | +$0.18 | 64% 9962-5592 (15554) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $9.13 | $9.13 | +$0 | 53% 16795-14918 (31713) |
Invested
$654.92
Value
$700.99
PnL
+$43.11
Record
51%
25699-24415 (50114)
Invested
$423.38
Value
$426.69
PnL
+$3.31
Record
50%
28405-28303 (56708)
Invested
$307.62
Value
$309.89
PnL
+$2.27
Record
64%
9920-5524 (15444)
Invested
$100.5
Value
$107.38
PnL
+$6.88
Record
50%
25801-25492 (51293)
Both legs:
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$70.21
Value
$74.11
PnL
+$3.9
Record
51%
6334-6121 (12455)
Invested
$24.31
Value
$24.56
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
61030-65863 (126893)
Invested
$23.03
Value
$23.21
PnL
+$0.18
Record
49%
4474-4672 (9146)
Invested
$22.51
Value
$22.69
PnL
+$0.18
Record
64%
9962-5592 (15554)
Invested
$9.13
Value
$9.13
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16795-14918 (31713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.