Real Cundinamarca vs. Real Cartagena FC: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 56¢ · $735 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$735.23
-$5.17
57.4¢ → 56.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 57.3¢ | $313.1 | $311.22 | -$1.88 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 57.5¢ | $282.36 | $280.08 | -$2.29 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 57.7¢ | $86.5 | $85.5 | -$1 | 51% 442-417 (859) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $45.73 | $45.73 | -$0 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $7.31 | $7.31 | -$0 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $5.4 | $5.4 | -$0 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
Invested
$313.1
Value
$311.22
PnL
-$1.88
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Invested
$282.36
Value
$280.08
PnL
-$2.29
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$86.5
Value
$85.5
PnL
-$1
Record
51%
442-417 (859)
Invested
$45.73
Value
$45.73
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$7.31
Value
$7.31
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.4
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.