Counter-Strike: DNK vs SINQU (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold DNK (50%) · DNK at 100¢ · $438 held · ends Nov 1

DNK>99¢SINQU<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DNK

Consensus Traders

DNK 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$437.86

Combined PnL

$34.82

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDNK at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

DNK100%

SINQU0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DNK2 traders

Total Value$145.92

Total Shares192

Combined PnL+$9.38

SINQU2 traders

Total Value$77.44

Total Shares201

Combined PnL+$25.44

DNK — 50%SINQU — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposhARB<$100	DNKavg 67.4¢	$147.08	$151.96	+$4.88	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
└ DNK leg	DNKavg 67.4¢	$94.6	$115.01	+$20.42
└ SINQU leg	SINQUavg 25.6¢	$52.48	$36.94	-$15.54
daddyradar	DNKavg 71¢	$118.05	$124.7	+$6.65	67% 90-45 (135)
US User7429CTR<$100	SINQUavg 25.8¢	$41.56	$70.01	+$28.45	55% 8413-6766 (15179)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	SINQUavg 26.9¢	$98.52	$62.54	-$35.98	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
└ SINQU leg	SINQUavg 26.9¢	$85.56	$36.53	-$49.03
└ DNK leg	DNKavg 44.1¢	$12.96	$26.01	+$13.05
BE berlinskies<$100	DNKavg 71¢	$18.49	$21.22	+$2.73	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	SINQUavg 26¢	$10.44	$7.43	-$3.01	59% 3430-2345 (5775)

poshposhARB<$100

DNK

Invested

$147.08

Value

$151.96

PnL

+$4.88

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

Both legs:

DNK$94.667.4¢+$20.42

SINQU$52.4825.6¢-$15.54

daddyradar

DNK

Invested

$118.05

Value

$124.7

PnL

+$6.65

Record

67%

90-45 (135)

User7429CTR<$100

SINQU

Invested

$41.56

Value

$70.01

PnL

+$28.45

Record

55%

8413-6766 (15179)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

SINQU

Invested

$98.52

Value

$62.54

PnL

-$35.98

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

Both legs:

SINQU$85.5626.9¢-$49.03

DNK$12.9644.1¢+$13.05

berlinskies<$100

DNK

Invested

$18.49

Value

$21.22

PnL

+$2.73

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

shiifooCTR<$100

SINQU

Invested

$10.44

Value

$7.43

PnL

-$3.01

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

Research grade

NeutralDNK at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DNK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.