Games Total: O/U 2.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 71%
$3.1K
$1.1K
46.7¢ → 100¢
+114% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YI yishiwucheng | Overavg 46.2¢ | $896.88 | $1.9K | +$960.38 | 51% 1849-1779 (3628) |
CR Crazyboy77 | Overavg 44¢ | $440 | $864.99 | +$425 | 51% 185-176 (361) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | Underavg 56¢ | $501.47 | $165.67 | -$335.81 | 53% 139-122 (261) |
LO lonmi2511 | Overavg 68¢ | $82.91 | $121.94 | +$22.62 | 62% 1226-749 (1975) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 83¢ | $24.2 | $29.15 | +$4.94 | 58% 11427-8282 (19709) |
 StudyPrediction<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $13.2 | $23.1 | +$9.9 | 53% 4630-4037 (8667) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Underavg 59.7¢ | $9.87 | $0.83 | -$9.04 | 45% 12892-15654 (28546) |
Invested
$896.88
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$960.38
Record
51%
1849-1779 (3628)
Invested
$440
Value
$864.99
PnL
+$425
Record
51%
185-176 (361)
Invested
$501.47
Value
$165.67
PnL
-$335.81
Record
53%
139-122 (261)
Invested
$82.91
Value
$121.94
PnL
+$22.62
Record
62%
1226-749 (1975)
poshposh<$100Invested
$24.2
Value
$29.15
PnL
+$4.94
Record
58%
11427-8282 (19709)
StudyPrediction<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$9.9
Record
53%
4630-4037 (8667)
Invested
$9.87
Value
$0.83
PnL
-$9.04
Record
45%
12892-15654 (28546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.