Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (33%) · Legacy at 56¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Legacy
6
Legacy 33%
$14.7K
-$134.48
58¢ → 56.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLegacy at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA PacersThreeandahalf | Legacyavg 58¢ | $8.7K | $8.5K | -$150 | 62% 1003-623 (1626) |
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR | FURIAavg 42¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$0 | 51% 708-691 (1399) |
RA RayayaCTR | FURIAavg 41¢ | $409.99 | $419.99 | +$10 | — |
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | FURIAavg 41¢ | $292.87 | $300.01 | +$7.14 | 46% 508-588 (1096) |
 relativesignificance | Legacyavg 57¢ | $185.44 | $183.82 | -$1.63 | 57% 145-111 (256) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | FURIAavg 42¢ | $126.96 | $126.96 | +$0 | 35% 171-317 (488) |
Invested
$8,699.93
Value
$8.5K
PnL
-$150
Record
62%
1003-623 (1626)
Invested
$5,123.09
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
708-691 (1399)
Invested
$409.99
Value
$419.99
PnL
+$10
Record
—
Invested
$292.87
Value
$300.01
PnL
+$7.14
Record
46%
508-588 (1096)
relativesignificanceInvested
$185.44
Value
$183.82
PnL
-$1.63
Record
57%
145-111 (256)
Invested
$126.96
Value
$126.96
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
171-317 (488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.