Consensus PnL $485K · win rate 50% (1142–1151, n=2293) · PM monthly #196 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$484.9K
Record
1142W / 1151L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 2293 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1735
Source
PM monthly #196
Trades
732
Markets
2,597
Volume
$8.8M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 5 on the consensus side (40%)- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AHeroic $9.3K · now 62¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 10.5 Total CornersOver $953 · now 100¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Under)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $328 · now 30¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $268 · now 12¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (91% of 33)
- Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $248 · now 2¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,589 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 47¢- Soccer
+32 pts
side won 80% of 135 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +35%
- Esports
+20 pts
side won 68% of 1341 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +19%
- Tennis
+19 pts
side won 67% of 52 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 25% of 299)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 68% of 547)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 82% of 514)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 93% of 229)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.