Consensus PnL -$98K · win rate 57% (378–285, n=663) · was PM monthly #661 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-98.4K
Record
378W / 285L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 663 settled
Batting Avg
43.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1335
Source
PM monthly #661
Trades
691
Markets
769
Volume
$8.9M
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 24 on the consensus side (71%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $64K · now 99¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Nets vs. PacersPacers $19K · now 62¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (54% of 15)
- Clippers vs. WarriorsClippers $19K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (44% of 21)
- Celtics vs. MagicCeltics $14K · now 71¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (43% of 25)
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Clippers $11K · now 53¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?No $9.4K · now 48¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $8.7K · now 5¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (95% of 22)
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AFaZe $8.2K · now 32¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
Specialties
483 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 60¢- Esports
+35 pts
side won 96% of 173 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +33%
- NBA
+35 pts
side won 93% of 74 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +34%
- Soccer
+29 pts
side won 82% of 106 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +18%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 21% of 24)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 83% of 88)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 94% of 239)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 98% of 132)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.