Consensus PnL -$813 · win rate 52% (216–198, n=414) · was PM monthly #936 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
-$813.17
Record
216W / 198L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 414 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1641
Source
PM monthly #936
Trades
53
Markets
426
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 7 on the consensus side (43%)- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over $5.9K · now 44¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (60% of 29)
- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $2.2K · now 25¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ANatus Vincere $1.7K · now 45¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Yandex $1.7K · now 19¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Will Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?Yes $880 · now 0¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $632 · now 8¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-11-01?Yes $600 · now 0¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
263 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+30 pts
side won 86% of 204 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +30%
- Soccer
+31 pts
side won 83% of 18 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +29%
- NBA
+21 pts
side won 73% of 11 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +18%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 43% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 71% of 80)
- 50–70¢: 55%(won 85% of 144)
- 70¢ and up: 12%(won 100% of 32)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.