Consensus PnL $179K · win rate 52% (1567–1441, n=3008) · PM monthly #231 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$179.2K
Record
1567W / 1441L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 3008 settled
Batting Avg
26.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1611
Source
PM monthly #231
Trades
968
Markets
3,282
Volume
$8.5M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 8 on the consensus side (38%)- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AHeroic $7.4K · now 62¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (56% of 16)
- Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BARCA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance PlayoffsBARCA $5.2K · now 41¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Wildcard)
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ANatus Vincere $5.0K · now 45¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AFURIA $3.5K · now 69¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (FaZe)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Yandex $3.1K · now 19¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance PlayoffsBESTIA $2.6K · now 0¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (100 Thieves)
- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $2.5K · now 25¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 8¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
Specialties
1,600 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+41 pts
side won 96% of 1461 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +41%
- NBA
+47 pts
side won 97% of 36 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +50%
- Tennis
+39 pts
side won 90% of 52 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +33%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 83% of 63)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 94% of 517)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 98% of 761)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 99% of 259)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.